The news are flashing in bold, italics and bigger font size that Russian Defense Ministry and Wagner group has military coup. Now let’s analyze the detailed picture from every angle.

Recently, a video was released by Prigozhin blaming Russian military for carrying out an alleged attacks against his troops, killing a huge amount of his own forces in Ukraine. He vowed that he will go to Moscow to wipe out the  Russian military’s evil plan and that his forces were going to cross into Russia – calling it a march of justice. Now matter of concern is who all are included in Wagner group and why its matter of tension for India or world.

To understand lets first understand What is Wagner group, what all they do and how they are linked with Russian Defense Ministry?

The Wagner group was established by a Russian intelligence official named Dmitry Utkin and is now governed by Yevgeny Prigozhin. He used to sell Hot dogs, Owner of a  St. Petersburg restaurant, holder of  government catering contracts. Ultimately, Prigozhin served as Putin’s chef. Then he became the caterer for the Russian government. But this is still unclear that how come a chef turned into the owner of the private military group?

According to news reports, Prigozhin involvement in military activites began in  2014, when some Russian  separatists broke into Ukraine’s  Donbas region. Following this,  several intelligence  officers created link between Yevgeny Prigozhin and Wagner group.  Progizhin visited a Russian jail where he offered chance to prisoners to fight aganist Ukraine in exchange for their freedom. He toured 17 prisons and recruited 1000 criminals as mercenaries.

The Wagner group is a private military group, which means that soldiers of the Wagner group donot belong to the Russian military but they work for the russian government for money and other favours. The Wagner group has received training and equipments from Russian Ministry of Defence and they wrk for Russia’s interest. It means that the Wagner troops are stationed wherever Russia’s interest lies. These groups are  also known as Private  Military Contractors (PMC) of PMC. They are not only limited to Ukraine. The Wagner group is said to have exerted Russian influence in several countrieslike Syria, Libya, The Central African Republic, Sudan, Mali, Mozambique.

In 2018, the Wagner troops were fighting against the American troops in Syria. In this war, Russia was supporting the Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad, whereas the American troops  were there to  support the Syrian rebels. Russia didn’t want to send its  troop to Syria. Instead of sending the Russian  military, it sent the Wagner troops there.

Gradually, the Wagner Group’s influence widened from Syria to Africa. Several foreign states use the Wagner Group for security against rebel groups in their respective countries. In return, the Wagner group  received money or contracts for natural resources.

For instance, in the Central African Republic, the government gave logging rights to the Wagner group of an areas spanning 1,87,000 hectares. The group  has been able to  make a fortune  out of this  by exporting  timber. The wagner troops  aren’t solely composed of Russians, but the Nepali & Gurkhas have joined the Wagner group. They are eligible to  receive Russian citizenship after one year of service. The Nepalese government isn’t happy about this, but it cant stop people.

How the Wagner group benefit the Russian government? Can’t the Russian government use the Russian military  for this?

It can but it doesn’t. Because the interest of Russian government is served and if any problem arises they can excuse by quoting that it has no involvement with private military group. Through this Russia can engage in proxy wars in different countries.

Now Wagner group is active since years but Prigozhin never cleared the nature of his involvement with it. In Sept 2022, he announced that he was the Wagner group’s Head and secretly he is managing group. But in 2022, it registered itself legallyand set up its headquarters in St. Petersburg, Russia. Then it began to advertise itself openly on billboards to hire new fighters openly and released recruitment videos. One poster was spotted in Russian city of Ekaterinburg. This group has also devised strategy known as Wagner line. It’s a system consisting of trenches and anti-tank defense in the Luhanksh region, which Russia illegally occupied in Sept 2022.

The U.S estimates that  nearly half of the 20,000 Russian troops killed in Ukraine since December 2022. The Wagner group has helped Russian government in time of crisis, protests and war situations.

Now suddenly, what happened that once who was considered as Putin’s right hand turned against him, Why did he launch a rebellion march against the Russian military where Putin has to warn the consequences of the betrayal?

It all begun on 23^rd June when Prigozhin blamed the Russian military for killing Wagner soldiers.

The Russian Military claimed that it didn’t attack the Wagner military bases and soldiers and the tension de-escalated rapidly. In 24 hours it was announced that a truce was made between Wagner group and Russian government following which Prigozhin moved to Belarus.

One video was released by Prigozhin stating, “ those who destroyed our guys today, along with tens of thousands of lives of Russian soldiers, will be punished. I ask no one to put up any resistance. Justice for the troops will be restored, and then justice for all of Russia.

Putin gave aggresive statement, ” All those who  deliberately  chose the path of trechery, who prepared an armed mutiny, who chose path of blackmail and terrorist methods will face inevitable punishment.

Despite Putin’s warning,  Prighozin’s troop  continued  tehir march to Moscow and its expected that the Russian military and  the Wagner group can collide head-on. But the situation changed when the Wagner troops were  only 200 km  away from Moscow. Later on, the Wagner group took over the Russian military facility in the country’s southern region. Prigozhin  announced that the Wagner soldiers will hold a blockade in Rostov, until Russia’s Defense Minister and the top General meet him. He even said that he wasn’t staging a coup but was marching for unity.

Why this all cious occurred between the Wagner group and the Russian government?

For this lets understand the involvement of Wagner group in the Ukraine war. By June 2022, the Russian invasion nearly reached a stalemate. Russia needed more troops to maintain its aggression in Ukraine. This was when  Putin allowed  Prigozhin  to scout  fighters from prisons. The prisoners were promised that if they survived for 6 months, they can go home after receiving full pardon. Unfortunately, by Sept 2022, this all took worst turns for Russia.

Ukraine carried out its counteroffensive  in the Kharkiv and Kherson provinces., where everybody began  doubting the Wagner Group’s relevance. Consequently, the Russian Defence Ministry was divided into two fractions –  One that supported the Wagner group and the other that didn’t. The fraction which supported Wagner group was led by General Surovikin and counter part was led by General Gerasimov.

In Oct 2022, General survokin was appointed as a chief of Staff of the Russian armed forces wihch was appreciated by Prigozhin. Thus, when Prigozhin captured Ukraine’s Bakmut, the collaboration between the Russian army and the Wagner group strengthened.

It was believed that Wagner group would help Russian military to win war in few month’s time but it didn’t happen. The military campaign that was predicted to be successful in few days streached for months. But the Russian military failed  to succeed which damaged the popularity of Prigozhin.

Later again Surovikin was removed from the position and Gerasimov was made the General which was criticized by Prigozhin.

After this changes was made in Russian Military, Prigozhin demanded the need ammunition which was claimed to be 70% exhausting. Moreover, the Wagner group was deprived of essential supplies. But several western military has reasoned that Russian military was saving their supplied to answer the counter attack of Ukraine. Things were worst between Wagner group and Russian military that Washington post claimed that Prigozhin has leaked intel about the Russian army to Ukraine which was claimed to be false by Prigozhin.

In May 2023, Prigozhin made several aggressive statements against the Russian military for not supplying essentials such as ammunition and threatened that if Russian military dint changed its behavior, the Wagner group will be withdrawn from Bakhmut.

In June, Prigozhin said that the Wagner group wouldn’t follow that would require them to sign a contract  with the Russian government. This all resulted in a march called coup initiated by Wagner group which only lasted for 24 hours. Because Alexander Lukashenko played an important role in ending an armed insurrection inside Russia. He was even entitled as a Hero of the Hero who has been an ally of Vladmir Putin for a long time. When the pre-democracy protest were going on in Belarus, Putin sent Russian proxies to  suppress them.

Lukashenko is a dictator who didn’t want any protests in Belarus. This unity between Belarus and Russia fears political instability in Russia.

Now it is doubted that Prigozhin has flewed to Belarus and the Russian government will not inquire about the where about of Prigozhin. Now question is what will happen to Wagner group in his absence? Prigozhin said his troops will go back to base camp, but Vladmir changed the scenario by proposing that soldiers of Wagner group could sign a contract with the government and fight the Russian military instead of serving private group.

Many geopolitical experts, reports, analysts states that Vadmir Putin did this political stunt to save his President ship and repeated the history of 1991 where one military coup was arised. According to Russian political analyst, about the 1991 coup took place against Russian President Gorbachev where Russia was Soviet Union and renamed as  Russia.  One reporter, Velina Tchakarova presented one theory that all events which occurred was not actually a  military coup but was a cleverness of Putin to win elections for next year. Uddhav Thackrey’s Saamana Patrika  even claimed that, “Be it Modi or Putin, they have to face  rebellion. The Government in India will be dislodged by a non-violent  wagner  and that route  will be through  the ballot box”.

Its important to know about this because many experts claimed that an unstable Russia can be dangerous for the Indian Military. It’s becasue Indian military relies heavily on Russian equipments.

How all this events will affect India?

India has not openly criticized Russia in Ukraine-Russia war and on the other hand Ukraine’s territorial sovereignty was respected. Despite criticism from different western countries, India government bought Russian Oil at discounted price which benefited Indian economy. India has saved $3.6  billion i.e. Rs. 30,000 crores by buying Russian Oil at discounted price in just 9 months.

Moreover, a veto in United Nations Security Council which is with Russia and military from Russian government. India owns 60-85% arms and ammunition of Russian origin. According to the International Institute of Strategic studies, more than 90% of the Indian army’s armored  vehicles, 69% aircraft and 44% Indian Navy submarines and warships are Russian made.

A report by a Parliament Standing Committee said that the Indian’s Air force budget  has been  cut due to the Russia Ukraine war because many of its supply deliveries are not completed. Hence, the current situation in Russia will have negative impact on India’s military  operations.

It is assumed that in case India and Pakistan has war situation, then Russia will support India in terms of supplying arms and ammunition. Moreover, India doesn’t want Russia to be in good terms with china, because if China and India has war situation, the Russia will support which ally is a big question?

Lastly, not only India but whole world will face the effect of Wagner and Russia conflicts on Market of oil and food. Because Ukraine and Russia are top global exporters of cereals and oil-seeds. Moreover, Russia is the biggest wheat exported in the world and Ukraine is fifth. Furthermore, Russia is a big global player in the energy generation and fertilizer market. It’s world  top natural  gas exporter, second largest oil exporter and third largest  coal exporter. In 2020, 15% of the fertilizers  exports were from Russia. Which means, that if there is any political instability in Russia, it will have huge impacts on the global markets.